My fleeting impression is that some Liberal Democrats are much less keen to emphasise the

My fleeting impression is that some Liberal Democrats are much less keen to emphasise the tax rises in Tory territory. But Ashdown does not shrink from doing so on national television, and Mr Cable insists that he enjoys arguing for them in well- heeled Twickenham wards. But he also says Labour supporters are showing perceptibly fewer of the inhibitions about switching that they might have had in 1992.This may be what lies behind Gordon Brown's rather overheated attack on the Lib Dem spending plans yesterday. The plans have, after all, broadly withstood the heat of scrutiny from the likes of the Institute of Fiscal Studies.

Labour don't mind switching in seats which only the Lib Dems can win. There is no evidence of such switching in the 75 or so Labour key seats where the Lib Dems are in third place But it would be bad news for Labour if there was. It could now be time to give John Prescott a more prominent role to inject a bit of old-time Labour passion into Labour's campaign.Ashdown's pro-Europeanism may not be doing him as much damage as some critics thought it would. On the one hand, Tories like Toby Jessel in Twickenham are using the party's support for the single currency for all it is worth. On the other, Lib Dem candidates can - and do - try to reassure Eurosceptics on the doorsteps that alone of the three parties, Ashdown's is promising a referendum not only on a single currency but on any big changes that result from the inter-governmental conference in Amsterdam - "the future of Europe" in doorstep-ese.

Pro-Europeanism is part of a larger vision about what could happen after the election.For Ashdown believes that Europe could yet be the catalyst for the fragmentation of British politics that he is looking to after the election. He sees a fragmentation into what he believes is naturally a five-party system - the Lib Dems, plus a Labour left and right, and a Tory left and right. His own party would function as a bulwark against the Labour left, perhaps ensuring that Blair can force through - say - British EMU membership against the Tory right and the Labour left. But for that fragmentation - the realignment which eluded Grimond, Thorpe and Steel - there needs first to be electoral reform.

If Ashdown got less than 20 seats he might chuck it in, making way perhaps for Menzies Campbell, perhaps for the younger Charles Kennedy or Simon Hughes.But that no longer looks so likely: Ashdown has exuberantly said that his successor "is still at school". His tax commitments could yet backfire badly in the deep privacy of the ballot box. But the evidence that their support is holding up well in the Tory target seats is fairly persuasive. It no longer makes sense to see the election as do or die for Ashdown and his party. If Blair wins, it's the referendum on PR that will truly determine the Lib Dems' future.. Racing There was a time when the 2,000 Guineas was almost a foregone conclusion after the Craven Stakes had been run. That time has passed. It was a rather pitiful commentary on what the Classic trial has become when a revised price was scribbled up about the winner, Desert Story, yesterday.

This was a colt who finished runner-up in the Royal Lodge Stakes and captured the Horris Hill last year, an animal whose trainer Michael Stoute has been planting flags of victory across the world since last autumn. Yet a price of 14-1 for the first Classic on 3 May hardly had the hordes bashing at the portcullis.There are many horses ahead of Desert Story in the betting and, tellingly, some of them will be making their seasonal debuts in the Guineas. As the plums of late season are continually added to the programme book, the distressing information for traditionalists also seems to be that the Guineas has almost taken on the role of a prep race.Stoute, nevertheless, will be happy to collect the bauble for Freemason Lodge. He would not rubbish the Craven, as this was his sixth success in the Group Three contest, and two of those, Shadeed and Doyoun, went on to collect the 2,000.The trainer is also more excited about Desert Story than others have been.